
But even though Kirkpatrick is clearly vulnerable, it won't be easy for Gosar. Kirkpatrick has launched an assault on him for failing to pay taxes, avoiding debates, and being short on substance.
"Had to be chased down 12 times to pay his taxes, even though he's a millionaire. Paul Gosar looks out for himself, not us," Kirkpatrick warns in a TV ad released late last month.
In August, Kirkpatrick challenged Gosar to five debates, but he has opted to lay low.
"Paul has avoided debates and underwhelmed everyone with his complete and total lack of understanding of any number of issues. But more troubling is that on the issues he has actually voiced an opinion on, he's pretty scary-- he's questioned the constitutionality of Social Security, supports $73 billion of cuts to it, and has suggested that there may be no need for Social Security at all, since folks could just work until they die," says Carmen Gallus, Kirkpatrick's campaign manager. "What the voters don't know about Paul Gosar will hurt them."
In addition, Kirkpatrick's campaign is banking on a big turnout from the district's huge Native American population; one in five voters there are Native American, and Kirkpatrick is counting on a big turnout among those voters.
For his part, Gosar says he's "never been chased down" for taxes, explaining that his delinquent payments were the result of "paying forward" health care benefits to his employees during the holiday season rather than making the first tier of Arizona tax payments in November.
On not debating Kirkpatrick, he jokes that he's "known as one of the fighting Gosars," the first of ten kids.
"I'd love to debate, but here's the scenario: Our district was made intentionally to be a rural district. We don't need to debate somewhere in an isolated area where Ms. Kirkpatrick can define the questions, isolate herself, and not have to be accountable to her constituents. If we're in a debate, bring it on."
But his answers on a series of issues are comparatively short on specifics for your typical Washington politician.